Is this the end for the industry? Photovoltaics not so profitable anymore?
A few days ago, a new draft of amendments to the act - "Energy Law and Acts on Renewable Energy Sources" appeared in the Government Legislation Centre. Over the next few days, black scenarios describing the end of the Polish photovoltaic industry raged on the Internet. Will it really be that bad? What will change and how is an ordinary Kowalski to deal with it?
Let's start with the fact that the net-metering system has been in force in Poland since 2016, which allowed for such a dynamic increase in the popularity of installing photovoltaic cells. This system allows you to collect 80% of any surplus electricity that we do not use on an ongoing basis within the next 365 days. This means that surplus energy produced in the summer can be safely collected from the "virtual" energy storage during the winter.
The new draft law assumes that this is to change. The net-metering system is to be phased out and replaced with an equally simple but less profitable one for investors. From 2022, the Energy Company will not store energy for us, but will buy it on an ongoing basis - and at the current average price of active energy. This means that we will receive PLN 0.25-0.30 for each kWh of energy produced.
It is so less favorable that we not only buy clean energy, but also pay for its transmission - in total almost twice as much, because about PLN 0.6. Therefore, by producing about 8,000 kWh per year in the net-metering system, we will receive in the worst case (without self-consumption) 6,400 kWh worth PLN 3,840, and in the new system we will sell 8,000 kWh for PLN 2,400.
What can all this mean? In our humble opinion, no one was prepared for such a dynamic increase in the number of micro-installations in our country. Several hundred thousand installed installations cause considerable voltage turbulence in the network, which is not prepared for it. At the moment, the only thing that can be achieved by such action is to slow down the growth of the installation.
How to deal with this? First of all, we do not know whether the regulations will come into force for sure, because it is only a draft law. Secondly, the new regulations will apply to installations established from January 2022. We strongly encourage you to complete the installation by the end of 2021, for these people it will be possible to remain on the old net-metering principles for the next years or until 2036.
According to the draft act, people who will install the installation after January 2022 will have less favorable conditions, but will it make photovoltaics unprofitable - certainly not! The return on investment may drop from 12-16% to around 10 %. It's still a very good investment these days. Moreover, if someone has unused land, they will be able to build a micro-installation with a capacity of 50 kWp and sell energy for PLN 12,500 per year!
Let us also remember that you can always install an energy storage that will help us balance surpluses in the daily cycle.
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